{"id":137301,"date":"2022-03-08T11:47:03","date_gmt":"2022-03-08T10:47:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.erasmusmagazine.nl\/en\/?p=137301"},"modified":"2025-12-19T11:26:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T10:26:10","slug":"military-intervention-is-out-of-the-question-as-we-are-already-on-the-brink-of-a-world-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.erasmusmagazine.nl\/en\/2022\/03\/08\/military-intervention-is-out-of-the-question-as-we-are-already-on-the-brink-of-a-world-war\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Military intervention is out of the question, as we are already on the brink of a world war’"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is the European Union leaving Ukraine in the lurch? The EU has been talking to Ukraine since 2008 about possible membership, but it never got serious. That changed when Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, suddenly declared herself in favour of membership of the beleaguered country after the Russian invasion. What can the EU do to stop the war in Ukraine? Member of the European Parliament and professor Ren\u00e9 Repasi: “I am not convinced that you can solve this by military means.”<\/p>\n

\"\"

\n\t\n\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n\tImage by:<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBas van der Schot<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\t

\n\t\t

Ren\u00e9 Repasi is Professor of Public and Private Interests at the Erasmus School of Law and a specialist in European Union law. He has been a Member of the European Parliament since last month, representing the German Social Democratic Party.<\/p>\n\n\t<\/div>\n

The European Parliament on Tuesday strongly condemned the Russian invasion. Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodimir Zelensky addressed the parliament during that session and received a standing ovation. What is the mood in the parliament in these times of war?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThe mood is extremely tense. We have a lot of colleagues from Eastern European countries. They remember how it was in the 1980s and are very afraid that the attack will not stop at Ukraine.\u201c<\/p>\n

\u201cThe images of the invasion reminded me of the 1990s, when I was still a boy. The war in Yugoslavia, the invasion of Kuwait. I don\u2019t think I fully understood what I saw on TV then, but I was really frightened. And now that I see the images of the Russian attack on TV, I have exactly the same feeling: \u2018What\u2019s going on here?\u2019 And that is also the mood in parliament.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main question in parliament is genuinely existential: \u2018What is the EU actually worth in a situation like this?\u2019 This is why we have the European Union in the first place, so that something like this doesn\u2019t happen. We should be able to protect each other if a country like Ukraine is attacked just because it has made a certain political choice. Initially, we felt that the member states were not doing enough, but that soon changed. Germany has started to block Russian banks and is also stopping the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. That is also going to hurt Germans. We did manage to grow a little bit as the EU on Tuesday.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\t

\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t
\n\t\t\u2018Colleagues from Eastern European countries remember how it was in the 1980s and are very afraid that the attack will not stop at Ukraine\u2019\n\t<\/blockquote>\n\n\t<\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n

What do you think of Ursula von der Leyen\u2019s remark that she would like to see Ukraine join the EU as soon as possible?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cI thought that was a bit hasty. It is important to declare that the path for Ukraine can lead to the EU, but we have a clear procedure for admission for a reason. If you are a member of the EU, you are part of the internal market from day one, where there is stiff competition. If you are not prepared for that, it will destroy your economy. This is what happened to some countries in Eastern Europe back in the 1990s, who perhaps, in economic terms, also became members a bit too quickly. The economies of these countries are still suffering from that to this day.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd the EU is not only an internal market, but also a club of values. A country must also meet the Copenhagen criteria of rule of law and democracy. It would also be unfair to countries like Bosnia and Serbia, who have been candidates for membership for decades. It is important that Europe offer these countries a perspective as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

What would you have said to Ukraine in Von der Leyen\u2019s place?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat you could say to Ukraine is: The European Union and Ukraine drafted an Association Agreement in 2014, which established far-reaching political and economic cooperation. In the Netherlands, 62 percent of voters voted against the agreement, but the government did not have to formally adopt that result and ultimately voted in favour of the agreement at the EU. However, thanks to the Dutch lobby, a statement was included that the agreement would not automatically lead to membership of the EU.[\/annotation] that is a run-up to membership. We can grant it the status of a candidate country. The path is open, but under the same conditions as other countries.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to support Ukraine on this path. That will cost money. The country has a huge corruption problem. Therefore, depositing money in the government\u2019s bank account, as we normally do, will not work. A lot of guidance is needed, more than in 2013. At that time, the EU offered 600 million euros in aid, whereupon the then-Prime Minister Yanukovych went to Putin and got 15 billion and refused to sign the Association Agreement with Europe. That also had to do with Europe\u2019s insistence that Ukraine had to choose: Russia or the EU. Its trade interests are divided squarely between these countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yanukovych\u2019s refusal to sign the Association Agreement led to the Maidan Uprising and his own ousting. What if Yanukovych had chosen the EU in 2013? Would things have been any different?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cI think so. The bigger question is what Russia would have done then.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>

\n\t\n\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n\tImage by:<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBas van der Schot<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>

Maybe Putin would have invaded right then instead of now.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think so, because something like that takes a lot of preparation time. But it is clear that Putin is not attacking because of any \u2018NATO threat\u2019 or EU expansion, but because of weird historical ideas about restoring the original Russian empire. He had those ideas even back in 2013.\u201d<\/p>\n

What difference would it actually have made to the war if Ukraine had already been a member of the EU?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThat would have made a significant difference. Article 42 in the EU Treaty lays down the terms of military solidarity between the member states. And although a member state is not automatically part of NATO; it doesn\u2019t take much before NATO states who are also members of the EU get involved.\u201d<\/p>\n

Would the EU also not have intervened if Ukraine was a candidate member?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cNo, it wouldn\u2019t have. Candidate membership is mainly symbolic and does not automatically lead to military solidarity. If you look at the non-reasons Putin gives for the invasion, candidate membership would not have been an obstacle either, since he knows that it has no military consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n

Would you have preferred that the EU had been able to provide military support?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWith a European army? Maybe it has to do with my German background, but I think you can only have an army if it is under the control of one parliament. That is how it is in Germany. On account of our past, we do not think it is a good idea for the executive powers to have control over war and peace. That must always be part of the democratic process. And that is not the case with the EU. Will Von der Leyen make a decision about an army, or will the Council of Ministers? Military autonomy can only be achieved if the treaties are amended to allow the European Parliament to make decisions. But there are other possibilities, like arms supplies by member states, coordinated on a European level. I do see a role for the EU in that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\t

\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t
\n\t\t\u2018I am not convinced that you can solve this militarily\u2019\n\t<\/blockquote>\n\n\t<\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n

European countries could also intervene in the conflict on an individual basis. How would you view that?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\u201cI am not convinced that you can solve this militarily. It just makes it more complicated. And we should instead find a way back to a way where we can solve the conflict diplomatically.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>

\n\t\n\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n\tImage by:<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBas van der Schot<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>

Zelensky is calling for a no-fly zone over the country and many Ukrainians would like to see the EU intervene. And frankly, if a 60-kilometre-long military column descended on my city, I would like the rest of Europe to intervene as well.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cYes, I understand that very well too. But we are on the brink of a world war. And if countries like Germany, the United Kingdom or the United States intervene now, we will have one.\u201d<\/p>\n

You think Putin would strike back at all those countries that show aggression?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cYes, that\u2019s what I expect would happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

The horrendous alternative is to let the bully have his way in Eastern Europe.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not an alternative for me either, of course, and that\u2019s what makes it so complicated. That\u2019s why we are now manoeuvring in a grey area where we are providing support with weaponry and imposing drastic sanctions so that Russia is unable to sustain the war. But I do not want us to end up in a world where a small country has to capitulate if it is attacked by a big one. That would be like being back in a nineteenth century world order, where only the law of the strongest applies. That is not acceptable. So, I can\u2019t rule out that Western armies will still have to be deployed, although I do not see that happening at this point.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\t

\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t
\n\t\t\u2018Bedreigde landen (\u2026) gaan zichzelf gaan bewapenen. Dan is het een kwestie van tijd dat het tot een grote explosie komt\u2019\n\t<\/blockquote>\n\n\t<\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n

It also sets a precedent if Europe does not respond militarily right now. What will stop Putin from attacking other Eastern European countries? And China may see its chance to annex Taiwan. They are now hearing: there will be no intervention if we do that.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s right. The consequences are that these threatened countries wonder what use the fine words of the West are to them, and start arming themselves. And then we will end up with more and more weapons everywhere. Then it\u2019s just a matter of time before that leads to a huge explosion.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is beginning to be a rather depressing story. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the past, it turned out that great wars are never won from the outside, but typically from the inside. Leaders or governments have usually been deposed by their own people. The First World War ended after the German Kaiser Wilhelm II was deposed by the German government because of mutinies within the German navy and the 1918 German November Revolution. I think that is also the only way to go in Russia. Russians themselves have to say to Putin: \u2018It\u2019 s the end of the road for you now.\u201d Therefore, we have to support the people who are standing up to Putin and the government. Those people standing in the squares along with the Ukrainians fighting against the Russian army, are, of course, the real heroes.<\/p>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

Read also<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t